1. Since September 15, 2022, the ETH merger has been completed and entered the 2.0 era, and the consensus mechanism has changed from PoW to PoS.
According to data query, the highest computing power of the entire network before the merger of Ethereum was 1055T. According to data from the CryptoCompare website, as of August 2022, the proportion of graphics card computing power in the Ethereum POW stage is approximately 93.15% of the total computing power. The average computing power of a single mainstream Ethereum graphics card is 55M. Before and after the Ethereum merger in September 2022, there were approximately 17.87 million graphics cards on the market. Considering that some graphics cards were withdrawn after the merger of Ethereum, this part is temporarily calculated as 30%, which means that there are 12.51 million graphics cards participating in the PoW project in the remaining market, and the maximum number of graphics cards is 17.87 million.
2. Risk analysis The risks of graphics cards participating in Aleo PoW mainly come from three aspects: payback cycle, currency price pressure, and ASIC chip computing power impact. Payback cycle analysis According to the latest Aleo economic model, the PoW output in the first year is close to 145 million coins. The average power consumption of a single mainstream graphics card on the market is 0.3Kw, the unit price of electricity is 0.45 yuan, and the annual electricity cost of a single card is 1,166 yuan. 1. Use existing graphics cards to participate in Aleo PoW. Assuming that all 12.51 million graphics cards in the market participate in Aleo PoW, the annual electricity bill for 12.51 million graphics cards will be 14.586 billion yuan, and the current futures price is about US$40.
Assuming that the average price of Aleo is US$13.7, Aleo’s annual PoW output value totals RMB 14.501 billion. This means that when 12.51 million graphics cards are participating, when the average price of Aleo is lower than 13.7 US dollars, the graphics card will enter a loss-making state. At this time, only graphics cards with a single card’s computing power exceeding the average computing power or an electricity cost advantage can continue to be powered on. 2. Participate in Aleo PoW by purchasing a new second-hand graphics card. The average price of second-hand graphics cards is RMB 1,800. With 12.51 million graphics cards participating, the income from a single card will first pay the electricity bill and then recover the cost of purchasing the card. When the currency price reaches 35 US dollars, the return This cycle is one year; currency price pressure analysis. According to the latest Aleo economic model, the output of PoW in the first year is close to 145 million coins, and the output of PoS in the first year is 220 million coins.
Calculated based on the current BTC price of US$36,000, the annual output value of BTC PoW is US$11.826 billion. When the Aleo currency price is US$32.4, the annual output value of Aleo PoW and PoS is equivalent to BTC. As a new blockchain project, Aleo’s annual output value surpassing BTC can be regarded as a major challenge.
In the early days of the Aleo mainnet launch, $32.4 was the gap that the Aleo currency price needed to overcome. If you purchase a new graphics card to participate in Aleo PoW, when the currency price is US$32.4, the payback period is 16.8 months; therefore, if you participate in Aleo PoW by purchasing a new graphics card, you will face huge currency price and power consumption pressure, and the cost recovery period will be too long. . ASIC chip computing power impact analysis reasonably estimates the ASIC chip delivery cycle. It is expected that ASIC will begin to flow into the market about half a year after the Aleo mainnet is launched. With its strong computing power and power consumption advantages, it only takes 2–3 months to The computing power of the entire network has been doubled. (You can refer to Kaspa, which has become popular this year. The editor personally participated in the entire process of Kaspa, including currency price, power consumption, and computing power growth rate)
At this time, the payback period of graphics cards without electricity price advantages and cost advantages has been extended to twice the original. With the continuous delivery of subsequent ASIC chips, the revenue space of graphics cards will continue to be compressed and graphics cards will eventually be eliminated. The existing graphics cards on the market will lose their advantage half a year after the mainnet goes online. To sum up, graphics cards participating in Aleo PoW will face three major risks: the payback cycle, currency price pressure, and the impact of ASIC chip computing power. Participating in Aleo PoW by purchasing a new graphics card will face greater risks.
In the medium to long term, ASIC chips are the core equipment of Aleo PoW, and purchasing ASIC chips to participate in Aleo will be a safe choice. Whether it is hardware acquisition cost or subsequent use power consumption rate, the cost recovery cycle is greatly shortened and the benefits are maximized. But ASIC chips are very difficult to make, including system level, algorithm level, RTL level, logic level, circuit level and physical domain, structural domain, behavioral domain, as well as functions, Boolean equations, crystals, etc. There are very few companies that have developed it on the market, with different R&D costs, different technical capabilities, and varying prices.
